Author Topic: Predictions for 2014 (II)  (Read 2380 times)

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Offline Mark Greaves (PCNetSpec)

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2014, 02:07:59 am »
Android PC's are already starting to appear
http://shop.lenovo.com/gb/en/desktops/essential/n-series/n308/
and
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2083989/hp-ships-an-android-all-in-one-pc-plus-several-business-laptops-and-desktops.html

And if they take off you can expect both Google and the millions of software devs that have already ditched Windows for Android to steadily make them more capable.

Face it, Windows is dead .. the software devs have moved elsewhere, and the OEM's would prefer Android for many reasons, price, ability to customise, and the fact that M$ has become a direct competitor (with an unfair advantage) by entering the hardware arena, to name a few.

Also see:
http://www.zdnet.com/six-reasons-why-android-pcs-can-be-disruptive-7000024845/
« Last Edit: January 15, 2014, 02:21:32 am by Mark Greaves (PCNetSpec) »
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Offline chemicalfan

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #16 on: January 15, 2014, 09:38:16 am »
Nice post MP - can't agree with all those examples though. I used to use Netscape Navigator (and Composer!), I presumed they open-sourced it as Firefox? Can't really remember  ::)

RIM is a good example though, a company that was ruling the building-world roost 10 years ago, but rested on its laurels and didn't evolve with the times, and now look at it. You couldn't give me RIM shares (if you did, I'd sell them immediately!). But Microsoft are 100/1000/??? times bigger than RIM, and that allows them more time to fix their model. Time is money, in that money can buy you time.

Mark - I guess you're having a bad Windows day :p I see what you're saying, but I fear the day that Android takes over the desktop. I don't like the OS that much...it's the best phone/tablet OS, but there's a reason you don't get iOS on Mac desktops, and it's the same reason I don't want Android on my desktop. That said, as I said earlier - there is a paradigm shift going on, and maybe in 5 years time, I'll feel differently. Maybe I'll be happy using Android as my primary OS on a tablet, but as of right now I can't see it. I like the ability to get under the hood, and really customise & investigate the workings of Linux, and you can't do it the same on any other OS. To be fair though, 99% of the world DON'T want that, and that's the market. In which case, Linux is going next to nowhere in terms of market share (not counting the kernel in Android!) :(

Edit: Actually, thinking about it, the very argument I use to promote Linux, is the argument that would be used to promote Android. It's the business case scenario, where you define requirements, then look for solutions that fit, rather than the other way around. In which case: Web browsing - check, documents - check, spreadsheets - check, gaming - err....check....., file cloud syncing - check, music playing - check, movie playing - ...check..., anything else? As, Android technically covers all those bases  :o Just the peripheral issue to solve, and that's an easy one. Wow, the future can be scary sometimes  :-\
« Last Edit: January 15, 2014, 09:45:41 am by chemicalfan »

Offline Mark Greaves (PCNetSpec)

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2014, 11:56:23 am »
The point is it doesn't matter what YOU (or I) want, Android coming to the desktop will help (along with other options such as not having a desktop at all, iOS, Mac and Linux) take ENOUGH market share to make Windows development unprofitable, untenable, and a massive drain on other revenue streams.

Remember, Microsoft is a BUSINESS .. when something becomes unprofitable and a drain on profitable revenue streams, they'll drop it or die as a company .. that's a fundamental business principle.

The desktop won't completely die, but its market won't be large enough to support Windows development costs and all the other overheads, support, distribution, lawyers, advertising, OEM smoochers, lobbyists, dirty tricks brigade, etc.

Money is already buying Microsoft time .. but it won't/can't last.

Take off your blinkers .. this is NOT a prediction, it's already history .. Just a few short years ago Windows was the OS placed on (and this is a pure guess) about 97%(ish ?) of all computers/devices that has a screen .. now where are they ?

Windows is in a serious downward spiral, and the truth is it's NOT the Windows 8 debacle that's the root cause (though it didn't help). The cause is a move away from the desktop and the rise of Android .. and there's NOTHING Microsoft can do to fix that, it doesn't matter if Win9 is the best OS ever made if people no longer use the devices it's meant for and it can't grab the new markets attention.

I agree, I personally don't think Android is (yet) a viable desktop OS replacement, but that's NOT the point, the point is it's taken enough market share to destroy Windows .. then when it's gone, what do you think will fill the much shrunk "traditional" desktop OS gap ?
« Last Edit: January 15, 2014, 12:12:59 pm by Mark Greaves (PCNetSpec) »
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Offline chemicalfan

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #18 on: January 15, 2014, 01:17:27 pm »
Thinking about it, I don't think the "traditional" desktop will exist in 5 years time. I think you'll have "living room comptuting", which will include gaming & photo/video editing (doesn't have to be living room, just a big screen with wireless KB&M or whatever), and you will have a tablet + dock (convertible laptop, basically) for browsing, office software, and media.

So, if Microsoft ditched Windows per se, you'd have Xbox OS for the "living room computing" (on non-Xbox hardware, with the necessary applications), and Windows RT+++ (for the tablets/laptops). Or, you have Windows Tablet x86, and bully OEMs to produce low-spec Surface Pros, effectively. Be a brave CEO to do that, but it'll need brave decisions for them to survive (...and a miracle, as I'm sure you'll say  ::)  :P))

Offline Mad Penguin

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #19 on: January 15, 2014, 02:07:26 pm »
Ok, I'm now going to do something really scary .. I'm going to recommend SKY.
<fx: ducks and runs>

Now I have to use SKY because I can't get a terrestrial signal in my bunker here 100ft below ground, so I have to rely on a satellite dish on the surface for my TV. However, this isn't the SKY service I'm recommending, indeed I feel more than a little ripped off by SKY and their charges over the years and would never recommend their satellite services, simply based on their charges and the rate at which they seem to keep putting them up.

Anyone who's not tried it, this is where you need to be;
https://shop.nowtv.com/

Why?

I was paying 31 per month for the basic package + HD.
Now I'm paying 0 for freeview (BBC, 4OD etc) 4.99 for the Entertainment package, and when I want it 8.99 for movies.
(and it's HD and you can pay/not pay on a month by month basis, i.e. no contract)

So this is 14 per month for what I had, PLUS movies .. and given you can use two boxes simultaneously, then it's effectively half this price if you figure you effectively have "multi-room" or the ability to share the cost with a friend.

What does this have to do with the price of fish?

What you use to watch movies is not what you will use when you want access to the Internet / Email etc ..
The Sky now box is 9.99 incl, comes with a remote and the interface is pretty much like the website.
(i.e. it makes the satellite system look like a green screen terminal)
You're really not going to mess with it and complain because it has no keyboard etc, when you want to do something else you'll use a PC.
- this M$ concept of owning the living room, it's yet another short-sighted vision by a company that lost it's way many (many) years ago .. I'm an XBox fan and have owned three XBOX's and around fice XBOX 360's .. (so don't believe their user numbers, XBOX's don't last so long if you use them a lot!) .. but nothing is going to persuade me to buy a ONE after what they tried to do with DRM.

Whatever you do (!) don't go spending a few hundred quid on an XBOX One as a media center when you can get as good for a tenner.

- what you will probably see more of is tablets and laptops being able to cast their display to a big-screen TV .. but to be honest, if you've ever used your TV as a monitor, it's "Ok", but typically not something you'll do if you can be bothered to go sit at a desk. The "desk" top is going to be with us for quite some time just yet, certainly until they rethink how interfaces work. (i.e. keyboard/touch/mouse etc ..)

Incidentally have you seen the new adverts for the Surface Pro, with the guy on the train?
Do they seriously call that an ad?? It's more like "this is a really good box, honest, look! , it's got a word processor!" ..
- even their marketing department seems to have given up!



Offline Cortezz

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #20 on: January 15, 2014, 10:09:58 pm »
M$ ain't giving up on mobile devices it seems, just ploughing cash into another mobile manufacturer. I thought they would have held back after their Nokia phones kinda failed.

http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/samsung-set-for-new-windows-phone-with-full-hd-screen-50013237/
Cortezz

Offline Mark Greaves (PCNetSpec)

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #21 on: January 15, 2014, 11:17:18 pm »
Living room computing is not a new concept and will continue to go nowhere .. everyone wants a separate device so you can watch TV at the same time.
One device in the living room goes completely agqaindst what we're actually seeing .. multiple devices for separate and distinct jobs .. that's precisely why the Desktop PC market has shrunk.

There is NO WAY my kids are interested in having say a RasPi (or any device that used the TV as a monitor) precisely because it would stop them playing the Xbox at the same time .. and I don't blame them.

In any case, when I say "traditional desktop" I mean the desktop metaphor .. not the hardware.

When Widows disappears, which OS will be left to fill hardware that uses the traditional desktop metaphor ?
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Offline chemicalfan

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2014, 09:11:37 am »
I can only speak for the people I know, but I turn my desktop on roughly once a month, and I'm the only one that bothers to turn my parents and in-laws desktop machines on (mainly because I'm bored when I go round, haha). My technology use at home is either on my phone (in the absence of a tablet) or laptop (which is gaming most of the time, with some othe non-web stuff). My in-laws get by with their tablets, and my parents have a tablet & a laptop (use is limited to web surfing & word processing/DTP).

If you're talking about the "desktop metaphor" as something that would include the laptops in my examples, then I'd put forward that my parents could easily replace theirs with a convertible, running a tablet OS (be that Android, or a future Windows RT+++), and my use could be split between an Xbox-like use on my TV, and......well, I'm not a majority user, my other uses don't fit into the paradigm very well at all.

I take the point on about "taking up the TV" - most of my usage is because the missus is watching crap on the box, so it would take a second TV, and while a lot of families have multiple TVs, I guess that's not really the point. The point is, that bolstering the tablet OS, and modifying Xbox OS allowing installation on non-Xbox hardware, is what I think Microsoft need to be doing (for the consumer market - I can't see Windows moving out of the business environment  any time soon, sadly. Would be funny what businesses would do if they went under though!)

Offline Mad Penguin

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Re: Predictions for 2014 (II)
« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2014, 09:55:43 am »
Quote
http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/samsung-set-for-new-windows-phone-with-full-hd-screen-50013237/


Mmm, M$ subsidising cheap hardware .. I can't imaging where that will end. (they've not done that before!)
- the first time I bought an XBOX in the US for $99, I loaded up Linux on it using a mod chip ..

High end phone for low cost, well, I'm using this at present;
http://www.cyanogenmod.org/

I've re-deployed two old phones using this, it makes a HTS desire or Nexus S for example fairly current and quite usable ... can't help thinking that Samsung Windows phone hardware *will* be android compatible, so a Cyanogen loader will appear for it at some point ...  :)

 


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