A wise man once said

Not so long ago a very wise man told me that Linux would eventually win the desktop market, not because the masses would “see the light” and extol its virtues (which “we” all know it has), but because Windows would fade away and Linux would be what’s left.

Now with that in mind, take a look at these 2 articles …

First, What I consider to be a mistake by Microsoft … the assumption that the “Desktop PC” is dead, or at least a second rate citizen:

Yes I know sales figures suggest the “Desktop PC” is dying, and that “devices” are on the rise … but IMHO tablets are a gimmick that people are buying into because they already have a perfectly good PC at home, that doesn’t mean the “Desktop PC”, or indeed the desktop metaphor itself is a dying concept.

And more importantly … Here’s a staunch Windows defenders take on the “Consumer Preview” release of Windows 8:

Linux fans had predicted for years that “this is the year of Linux on the desktop” and it never happened … It’s beginning to look like it may happen “by default” :slight_smile:

I’ve said this before recently…Windows is finished in the medium term as a major operating system. Linux has been hijacked by Google and will become the system of the masses. In an office environment I can see the desktop remaining using Linux, Apple and Windows. The fact that Windows is introducing a 3g/4g connection to it’s software is an admission that Google (Linux) has stolen the carpet from beneath them with Andriod. Don’t get me wrong I,m not a fan of Google, infact I hate the way they are making Linux unsafe with ‘permision’ frailties.

The truth is I don’t want Linux to be the number one operating system, I like it as it is. Tghe more popular it gets the more thugs will try to break it.

Mark, interesting articles.
What concerns me is this:
Given Microsoft’s monopoly and how it controls it’s wast array of OEM manufactures,
we might just end up (in the not too distant future) in the situation where the only readily available hardware is going to be the tablet and the like.
Desktop PC’s will become niche products with the price to match.

The people that say Linux is secure because of “security through obscurity” … are talking rubbish.

Linux having the server market sewn up means it has had a bigger target on its back than Windows for quite some time.

Granted, the more computer illiterate users, the greater scope for damage (logging on as root for example), but that doesn’t put YOU at risk. ???

I’m not sure Microsoft has the hold on manufacturers they once had … but I get your point.

I think it more likely that Microsoft will realise their mistake, then in the short term try to make money threatening OEMs claiming that Linux breaches some of their patents, and selling them immunity in the form of licenses … a la Android :wink:

IMHO, Microsoft are going to end up as nothing more than a patent troll … but we’ll see.

In the end, Ballmer, et al, will be the death of Microsoft … they seem to have lost all sense of direction, and are now just scrambling about chasing others :slight_smile:

I know it is a bit gloomy, but they might just pull that off.
Given the direction of most of the OS desktops are heading, with their tablet friendly interface (think Unity & Gnome 3 shell)
The mindset is there already. Windows certification is as powerful as ever. Windows 8 (Metro) is just pawing the way.

First see the bit I added above :slight_smile:

Unity and Gnome 3 may have become more tablet friendly (big touch-screen friendly buttons etc.), but they are still a proper desktop OS … Win8 by the sounds of it has gone too far … desktop running as an application … what’s that about (VM ?) … and according to those articles, you’ll likely have other apps open too vying for resources because you’ll find it hard to close them.

People steered clear of Vista, and IMHO not because it was “worse” than XP, but because it offered nothing new yet required you to go through a learning curve … Windows 8 is sounding VERY similar, yet also has the default interface change.

No matter how pretty it is, people fundamentally don’t like change unless there are real benefits … look at the hoo-ha surrounding Unity/Gnome 3, and that was (in reality) just a minor change in desktop appearance, not as big as the Win8 change.

I also reckon that the masses are MORE averse to a change in interface (at least on the same platform) than your average Linux user.

Have you seen any “good” press about the Win8 interface, at least as far as desktops go ? … best I’ve seen is once you get Metro out of the way, it’s the same as Win7

Metro … Microsoft are rubbish at choosing names … to people in the UK, “Metro” has connotations of an old 80’s rubbish car, or a bus :slight_smile:

Do not get me wrong, I am not against the touch-screen friendly DE’s (as long as there is a choice)
if they are aware where they are and default to the apropriate user interface.

It appear that MS is ignoring all the bad press and forging ahead with the default Metro (I know what you mean) interface.

I wonder if this stems from their past experience, when people (the masses) moan & groan and then business as usual.
Why would Microsoft risk loosing their monopoly by implementing these radical changes,
unless they are certain that they have their users ‘in the bag’?

I’m sure you’ve hit the nail squarely on the head there :wink:

Maybe because they now have an idiot at the helm :slight_smile:

I agree Win8 will sell, if only because of it being “pre-installed” on new systems … I also expect there to be a roaring trade it Win7 downgrades, particularly to businesses (as there was with Vista → XP).

I’d also expect Microsoft to do some serious back peddling in Win9 when there’s no business uptake.

From what I’ve read so far (and if it’s true), I don’t expect any of the businesses I look after will be impressed with Win8, and will hang on to see what happens with Win9 … meanwhile I’ll still be trying to get them to switch to Linux :slight_smile:

Windows7 only really took off in the business world because their users had become familiar with Vista on their home systems, and Win7 was so similar (not to mention pulling the plug on XP).

Don’t get ME wrong … I don’t think Wn8 will be the end of Microsoft, nor do I expect Linux to make any sudden inroads, I think that will be a slower process than one revision, but it’s all feeding peoples general dislike of Windows … and now (because of the mobile market) people are aware there are alternatives.

Linux was a hard sell to most, even though (once explained) they’d generally agree it was better, simply because they were “used” to Wndows and could see no real benefit in changing … hopefully Win8 will make it a slightly easier sell, when it’s actually more like Windows than Windows itself.

The one thing I AM convinced of though is that Microsoft becomes less relevant by the day in every sector EXCEPT the desktop … and then there was Windows 8 :wink:

I see it more in “yet another nail in their coffin” terms … no empire lasts forever, ask the romans (or us), and most of the time they collapse suddenly after just a few mistakes :wink:

I find this very intriguing, because it was not so long ago I was “debating” with another “idiot” about Linux & Windows 8.

Windows 8 looks like it’s going to fail from the moment it launches. I’ve only seen negative feedback about “Metro” and how nobody likes it. In all honesty Microsoft are taking the “Windows” brand just a little too seriously now. You think about it. The “Windows” UI for the Windows Phone, is just literally square boxes. It’s the same for the Xbox 360. They updated the new dashboard to look like the Windows Phone/Tablet with Metro. It’s horrid. It’s made me want to throw my Xbox in the bin. It’s literally never been on from the moment I updated the dashboard.

The idiot I was debating with, was adamant that “Ubuntu” was not, and I quote:

...its not a realistic proposition for the average home user.

I literally tore his face off for it. When I think about it, yes it looks bad on the Linux community, but to say Ubuntu is not a realistic proposition is really just down right stupidity.

Let me quote some more of his stupidity:

You can make a Linux Distro workable in a home environment, but these days, why would you bother? Windows 7 works, the update mechanism works (finally), and out of the box anyone can use it, without having to configure anything or tweak it constantly. The story has been much the same since the days of Red Hat 6, and every time I’ve tried a new distro the story has been the same. Sure I can make it work, and configure it to do most of what I want, but why would I? It’s nothing like as easy to live with as Windows 7.

That aside - I’ve been fairly positive about Linux and it’s growth over the last few years, it seems developers and big companies are now finally realising that we have massive potential. However on the other side, part of me is worried that the “thugs” as Toonman quite rightly named them, will just try to hurt little Tux and his amazing powers. I wouldn’t want to see Linux get broken. :frowning:

Ahh, Windows are easily broken, but penguins bite back … a “thug” only has to throw a pebble at a window, but an angry/mad penguin will have their leg off.

Linux only having “security through obscurity” … is a fallacy propagated by people who look through rose coloured windows, or don’t understand the subject … funny how they don’t seem to include Macs in that argument which are still considered pretty secure … and the Linux model has everything a Mac has, and then the software repositories on top of that.

@ BkS

Your friend is indeed an idiot if he thinks Windows 7 works “out of the box” (I can only assume he’s never installed it from a box) … erm, he’ll be infected pretty quickly if he doesn’t immediately start adding things … then there’s the drivers for most of his peripherals … then the hours of updates … then there’s the fact that “out of the box” it isn’t capable of actually doing much till you start installing software (which you then find needs more updates).

Windows 7 works, the update mechanism works (finally)

Really, is he being serious ???:
or, any number of other search terms containing “Windows 7 Update” … or particular infamous updates, such as KB977074
I get tons of calls from people with Win7 update issues ::slight_smile:

At a guess, I’d say it takes me roughly 5 - 7 times as long to do an “out of the box” Windows 7 setup as it does an Ubuntu one.

Nor am I convinced by the “Windows is easier to set up for Joe Average” argument … your average man in the street has no idea what a driver is, he just plugs in his peripheral and goes “why is it not working” … Windows may tell him he needs a driver, but it doesn’t tell him where to get it or which version … and if something goes wrong, god help him … he may have already learned how to do these things, but that is a “learned” skill, if he “learned” Linux it’s no harder than Windows, just “different” … and IMHO easier, hell most of what you’ll require is all in one place.

Windows is only “easier” for those that already know how … IMHO, Linux is “easier” for those that don’t.

I’m guessing he means “pre-installed” where the work has been done for him … as I said, watch for the rush of people wanting a downgrade to Windows 7 from 8, then they’ll see ow much work is involved … actually they won’t, they’ll pay someone else :wink: … when they could have “easily” installed most of the Linux distros these days.

watch for the rush of people wanting a downgrade to Windows 7 from 8, then they'll see ow much work is involved .. actually they won't, they'll pay someone else ;) .. when they could have "easily" installed most of the Linux distros these days.

Totally agree

I installed Peppermint Two yesterday with only a minor glitch or two easily sorted by a friendly helping Linux community, need I say more?

Hahaha, your reply is almost exactly like the one I wrote back to him. After that he never replied back, I guess he finally either got fed up with being wrong or is busy installing Linux… :stuck_out_tongue: I’m hoping for the latter.

Ubuntu has been good to me over these past few years, and I’ve really not had any “major” problems… I honestly can’t wait for the 26th of April, I’ll finally be able to install Precise!